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Please join us as we welcome Elinor Martin, University of Oklahoma, for our colloquium on February 26, 2021.
Drought and extreme precipitation are two natural hazards that pose significant risks on multiple spatiotemporal scales, particularly the subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale. This timescale is also crucial for a wide range of stakeholders including water resources, emergency management, and energy and precipitation extremes may lead to devastating impacts in agriculture, transportation, infrastructure, water management and more. Although extensive research has focused on improving understanding of extreme precipitation at short space and time scales and there is emerging work on drought mitigation, there is still much that needs to be understood on the S2S timescale. In conjunction, there exists a significant gap in forecasting skill on S2S timescales, particularly with numerical models, due to the complex nature of the weather-climate interface.
This seminar will present results stemming from the Prediction of Rainfall Extremes at Subseasonal to Seasonal Periods (PRES2iP) investigating extended extreme rainfall events, as well as related projects examining transitions between drought and pluvial (heavy rainfall) conditions, and future projections of droughts and pluvials. We examine the climatology, synoptic and radar characteristics, predictability, and impacts coincident with 14-day extreme precipitation events and present a definition that can be applied to any variable that does not assume stationarity in extremes in a changing climate. In conjunction with this work, we examine rapid transitions (or whiplashes) between drought and pluvial events. In addition, this seminar will also discuss the role of stakeholders in the projects, including the development of stakeholder workshops, co-production of knowledge and actionable science.
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