Additional Details

The Cerrado, the world’s most biodiverse savanna biome, spans 1.98 million square kilometers across central Brazil. Until the 1970s, agriculture in the region was rudimentary, but subsequent modernization spurred the expansion of soybeans, corne, and sugarcane, and more recently wheat in Goiás and Bahia. Over the past four decades, this agricultural transformation has turned the Cerrado into a major breadbasket, yet Brazil remains dependent on wheat imports. In response, government policies have promoted wheat production in the region, supported by lenient environmental regulations that allow integration with existing crops, intensifying environmental pressures. Despite wheat’s high productive potential in the Cerrado, it continues to account for only a modest share of overall output, underscoring the need for effective policies and a deeper understanding of the drivers behind this emerging agricultural frontier. Drawing on political economy, Ricardian rent, and von Thünen’s location theory, this study examines how wheat policies, regional dynamics, and locational factors have shaped the recent expansion of wheat production in Goiás and Bahia, as well as the factors influencing the likelihood of wheat cultivation across municipalities within the biome.